Episode #1030

News Items

        What's the Word

        enantiodromia

        Questions and Emails

        Hello Y’all, I believe I could write you an entire novel of my concerns in life right now and provide an unending list of questions. I figure I will attempt to keep my question to the point in the next part. after that it’s just conjecturing from me. How much say does RFK have to limit or eliminate vaccine access for the US? What would/could we do to prevent it? If he can remove it, how badly would this affect the manufacturing and supply of vaccines once he is gone from office? An example I look to is the lime disease vaccine that did exist and disappeared and seems to making a come back now., Sorry- It’s a little long! A meme circulated on a Neil deGrasse Tyson FB page contained an interesting math problem: “A driver aims to average 90 mph over 2 laps, but he completed the first lap at (an average of) 60 mph. What (average) speed is needed for the second lap” I recognized the problem immediately. The question contains a trap and involves the idea of weighted averages. The intuitive answer is 120 mph. Many people guessed this. But many others got it right- 180mph, and there were numerous explanations provided- some very mathematical, some less abstruse. Then a second meme popped up where the 1st lap speed was changed to 45 mph. I was the first person to jump on this one, and didn’t initially realize that for this version there is no solution! So, I gleefully posted a picture of my work and thought “well, that was cool!” Similarly, others solved the problem in various ways and came to the same startling conclusion. The average speed needed for the second lap is infinity! But many more others insisted the intuitive, very wrong answer of 135 mph, found by (45 + X)/2 = 90 was RIGHT! You can imagine what happened. Many hours and dozens of threads later, people couldn’t accept the no answer answer. “It’s 135 mph and your narrow and dogmatic view is simply laughable!” The patient meme creator and others replied to numerous commenters with different types of arguments- some mathematical, some more logical, but to no avail. As of this writing many vociferous and determined individuals are still haunting the meme. LOGICAL FALLACY? One could dismiss as Dunning-Kruger, but I noticed something else. Many comments were of the form “It’s simple! Don’t you get it?!” and “Why are you making this so complicated?! Just take 90 times 2 and subtract 45!!!!” And I’ve seen this in other contexts as well. It seems to be a desire for simplicity (elegance?). Things that are messy and complicated must be wrong. “There’s gotta be an easier way to do it!” Thoughts? William CA

        Science or Fiction

        Skeptical Quote of the Week.

        “The fool doth think he is wise, but the wise man knows himself to be a fool” - William Shakespeare, As You Like It